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A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."